Ofgem price cap: what the rest of 2026 could bring

The energy price cap rose 13% to £1,862 a year for a typical home from 1 July 2026. The question now is what the autumn brings, because the October cap lands just as the heating season starts. Forecasts point to a further small rise, but a change to how Ofgem measures a "typical" home makes the headline numbers harder to read.

The October forecast

The analysts at Cornwall Insight forecast the October to December cap at around £1,899 a year, about 2% above July's level, measured on the old typical-consumption figures. On the new typical-use figures that Ofgem adopted from July 2026, the same forecast works out at roughly £1,709 a year. The two are not directly comparable, which is the catch below. Ofgem confirms the actual Q4 cap on 26 August 2026.

Why the headline number is slippery this year

Ofgem changed its Typical Domestic Consumption Values, the assumed annual usage behind the headline figure, from July 2026. Lower assumed usage produces a lower headline pound figure even if the underlying unit rates barely move. So a cap "of £1,709" versus "£1,899" can describe almost the same rates measured against different baskets. The fix is simple: compare the unit rate (p per kWh) and standing charge, not the annual headline, when you judge whether a deal beats the cap.

What moves the cap

The biggest lever is the wholesale price of gas, which still sets the marginal price of electricity for much of the year. Network costs and policy levies make up most of the rest. Forecasts move with the gas market, so treat any October number as an estimate until Ofgem confirms it in late August.

What to do about it

If a further rise would be hard to absorb, a fixed tariff locks today's rate and removes the autumn risk, at the cost of a possible exit fee. If you can ride the market, a tracker tends to be cheaper over a year. Remember the cap limits unit rates, not your total bill, so the surest savings are using less and shifting use to cheaper periods. Compare suppliers on service and value, not just price, in the supplier rankings, and model your own usage with the energy bill optimiser.